News summary
Industrial silicon futures prices rebounded this week, with total positions reaching a record high. Despite stable spot prices, reduced downstream demand, high inventories and growth in warehouse receipts. Strategies suggest selling hedging on rallies and paying attention to changes in costs, inventories and macro sentiment.
Newsletter text
[Industrial silicon futures prices rebounded strongly]
This week, driven by macro sentiment and capital games, the industrial silicon futures market ushered in a significant price increase. As a result, market participants 'willingness to hedge has increased, and transactions in the spot market have been good, boosting industry sentiment. At Friday's close, total open holdings set a record, reaching 39.crashbandicoothangeight.09 million lots, the main contract 2409 finally ended trading at a price of 12940 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 1065 yuan/ton from the previous week.
[Spot market costs are stable, and demand side shows signs of decrease]
The cost side remained stable this week, raw materials and electricity prices fluctuated little, and production costs did not change significantly. However, the demand side was affected by the decline in downstream product prices, and demand for industrial silicon decreased. In particular, the price of polysilicon continues to decline, and some companies choose to overhaul or reduce production capacity. It is expected that this month's output will decrease compared with the previous month, thus reducing the purchase demand for industrial silicon.
[Spot prices remain stable and market supply is abundant]
Although the price of mainstream delivery goods has risen with the rise in the futures market, the price of the spot market has increased.crashbandicoothangeightThe price of his model has not fluctuated much. The resumption of work and production of southwest production enterprises has kept supply sufficient, while the number of inventories and warehouse receipts continues to increase, and the overall market inventory level is high.
[Strategic suggestion: Sell hedging on rallies]
Operating rates in major producing areas have increased, and the polysilicon industry has begun to reduce production capacity, while total inventories and warehouse receipts remain under high pressure. Although the futures market has risen rapidly in the short term, the fundamentals have not yet improved significantly. While ensuring financial stress testing, investors may consider selling hedging operations at high prices.
[Risk warning: Pay attention to downstream purchasing sentiment and changes in warehouse receipt quantity]
Market participants need to pay close attention to changes in downstream purchasing sentiment and warehouse receipts, which may have an impact on industrial silicon prices. In addition, macro sentiment and capital flows are also key factors that need to be paid attention to in the short term.