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Under the relevant disturbance, A shares showed a phased correction in the market, and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 3100 points. How will the market behave as it enters the last trading week in May?
Thepaper.cn news collectionWsopfreemegabonusspin2020According to the views of 10 brokerages, most brokerages believe that the recent phased adjustment of A shares does not mean the end of the repair market, as policies and reform efforts at the economic level are expected to continue to increase, follow-up market fluctuations are limited, and major indices are expected to rise again. Strategically, we can still be optimistic about A shares.
Citic Securities pointed out that the market has entered a state of stock, the impulse of global capital rebalancing has cooled, and the market based on expected repair is over. After the reality is gradually verified, the steady upward trend will continue.
"as China's economic policies and reform efforts are expected to continue to increase, and drive investors to expect to continue to repair. The recent phased adjustment of the A-share market does not mean the end of the repair market since February, and the main index is expected to rise again after adjustment. " China International Capital Corporation pointed out.
Guotai Junan Securities further pointed out that the declining uncertainty is the core factor driving the current round of market conditions. Different from the situation in which the stock market has high expectations and high positions but optimistic expectations continue to fail in 2023, after the volatility of the stock market in early 2024, the stock market shows the characteristics of low expectations, low expectations and low positions. the consensus on low consensus implies a potentially unexpected return space and a more positive response to marginal good.
In terms of configuration, the dividend plate is still the direction recommended by many brokerages. Citic Securities advises investors to lay out around themes such as low-wave dividends and reduce rotational games.
"before the obvious upward revision of the overall profit forecast and the outbreak of the new industry cycle, it is appropriate to continue to adhere to the dividend bottom position allocation." Citic Construction Investment Securities said.
Citic Securities: rising steadily
Looking forward to the future, the market will enter the state of stock, the impulse of global capital rebalancing will cool down, and the market based on expected repair will end. After the reality is gradually verified, the steady upward trend will continue.
On the one hand, the liquidity situation of the market no longer supports the market driven by purely expected repair, the room for further expansion of active private equity is limited, ETF continues to show a small outflow, overseas risky assets are being repaired, and the impulse of global capital rebalancing is cooling.
On the other hand, when the market turns to a steady upward trend driven by the gradual improvement of policies, fundamentals and risk preferences, the verification of four factors is very important: first, the effect of the real estate policy shift and subsequent further policy responses need to be verified; second, the industrial policy aimed at optimizing the supply side needs time to gradually take effect, and third, the introduction of various reform guidelines at important meetings is worth looking forward to. Fourth, the influence of complex geo-environment on market risk preference needs to be digested.
In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors continue to focus on high-performance growth, low-wave dividends and active themes, and reduce the rotation game.
China International Capital Corporation: regain the upward trend
Looking forward to the future, as China's economic policies and reform efforts are expected to continue to increase, and drive investors to expect to continue to repair. The recent phased adjustment of the A-share market does not mean the end of the repair market since February, and the main index is expected to rise again after the adjustment.
Although the current market valuation has been repaired, the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is only 10%.Wsopfreemegabonusspin2020.5 times, still far from the historical average (about 12.6 times the average over the past decade), and the marginal correction of earnings expectations after the first quarter also contributed to the performance of the future index.
Combined with the current market environment, the implementation of stable growth policy may be the key to the follow-up market direction choice. In terms of allocation, in the context of better external demand, export chain industries and global pricing resource goods still have allocation opportunities; market attention in some price-rising sectors such as public utilities has increased; and green sectors such as new energy focus on recent marginal changes in industrial policy, helping to reverse investor expectations.
Citic Construction Investment Securities: short-term focus on defense
Looking forward to the future, we can still be optimistic about A shares strategically, and wait patiently for short-term tactics. On the one hand, the recent Fed interest rate cut expectations continue to move backward, the tone of the marginal shift to the eagle, overseas market volatility intensified.
On the other hand, the previous market has expected to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, which has not been fulfilled, and the relationship between A-share micro-liquidity and supply and demand has improved from previous continuous improvement to a recent marginal contraction; A-share reduction rules have landed, while the recent IPO audit restarted, broad-based ETF showed outflow, micro-liquidity marginal contraction; export boom is still in place, domestic demand repair remains to be seen.
Recently, the market tried to switch from dividend + export to domestic demand pro-cycle, mainly around two clues, one is the price chain, the other is the real estate chain. However, there are differences in sustainability and space at present. On the one hand, under the background of doubtful demand support, the price fluctuation of resource goods in the upper reaches is intensified, and the momentum of price increases in the middle reaches is gradually weakening; on the other hand, it remains to be seen how the fundamentals of the real estate chain improve and further increase the policy after the policy landing.
From the perspective of medium-term allocation, before the obvious upward revision of the overall profit forecast and the outbreak of the new industrial cycle, it is appropriate to continue to adhere to the dividend bottom allocation, while paying attention to the industries with independent fundamental logic, such as electric power, aquaculture, non-ferrous and so on.
Guotai Junan Securities: shock rise
Looking forward to the future, the marginal combination of RMB currency stability, domestic demand policy strength and rising reform expectations makes China's asset logic smooth. Investment opportunities in the middle of the year, dare to reverse the layout, the stock market volatility rose.
The apparent reason for the recent stock market correction is that the market is worried about geo-risk. Although the external geography is still grim, the market has not expected too much in the past two to three years. More importantly, it should be seen that uncertainty is declining, which is the core factor driving the current round of market conditions.
Specifically, expectations are no longer revised down and uncertainty is reduced, which is the key driving force for China's stock market to rise. Different from the situation in which the stock market has high expectations and high positions but optimistic expectations continue to fail in 2023, after years of adjustment and stock market fluctuations in early 2024, the stock market shows the characteristics of low expectations, low expectations and low positions. A consensus of low consensus implies potentially unexpected room for return and a more positive response to marginal good.
In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors start with blue chips and then grow stocks, and increase the allocation of blue chips and growth stocks in part of domestic demand.
Galaxy Securities: rising steadily
Last week, the market lost 3100 points in a pullback, which may be mainly related to rising geopolitical concerns, but more problems or concerns may still be concentrated at the domestic level.
From the liquidity point of view, the current lack of incremental funds, the market trading sentiment gradually receded. Although the renewed policy of management to strictly regulate the arbitrary reduction of holdings is expected to boost the mood of short-term capital trading, the core problem of the current market is the gradual decline in liquidity. this means that the capital side is gradually unable to support the market driven by this round of expected repair (valuation repair) to continue to rise. Next, the market will most likely transition to a steady upward phase of policy landing, a pick-up in fundamentals and a gradual improvement in risk appetite.
From the perspective of economic fundamentals, considering that the economic data in May is relatively stable and EPMI performance is slightly better than seasonality, the upcoming May PMI data is likely to be stable and is expected to become a stabilizer of market sentiment in stages.
In terms of configuration, the current market is very fragmented, the increment is insufficient, the stock fight is becoming more and more intense, and the short-term trading is more difficult. The medium-and long-term layout requires "patient capital" to continuously contribute incremental funds, and these funds need more positive signals to enter the market, and the follow-up can pay attention to the actual effects of real estate policies and industrial policies. and important time points such as whether there will be more-than-expected reform policies at important meetings.
Haitong Securities: limited follow-up fluctuation
The current market is dominated by structural shocks, which is conducive to weakening the pressure above and building up strength for the follow-up market. At the same time, last Friday's decline in the market trading volume fell faster, indicating that the decline momentum is beginning to weaken.
It is expected that the follow-up volatility of the market is limited, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rebound in the short term. In the intensity and plate can take advantage of market shocks to continue to pay attention to high-quality blue-chip sectors, such as banking, insurance, home appliances, consumer and other sectors.
In terms of configuration, from the current fundamentals, the current macroeconomic repair is not stable, and the follow-up trend of the market still needs to track the landing of policies and whether macroeconomic data can accelerate the recovery. It is recommended that balanced growth style configuration, medium-term attention to the high-end manufacturing field, stock selection and risk control.
Huatai Securities: the center of gravity has gradually moved up
Looking forward to the future, after the intensive catalysis of real estate policy, enter the effect observation period, policy tools have reserves, the market has expectations. Reduce the new rules on the ground, or accelerate the floating of industrial capital to optimize the A-share ecology. Overseas, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates back or continue, suggesting to weaken the interest rate cut point bets, overseas AI strong capital expenditure + leading high economy to A-share mapping weakening.
The center of gravity of the market has gradually moved up in the repair, the policy expectation in the total amount supports the risk preference, and the structure lacks the economic extrapolation direction of the main line level, which is characterized by the rapid rotation of the industry and the sinking of the market to the direction of high performance-to-price ratio.
In terms of configuration, it is suggested that on the basis of ROE stability and even dividends with room for improvement, "real estate +" should be built at every bargain, such as real estate + export-driven light industry, real estate + chemical fiber, chemical raw materials and real estate + mass consumer goods with recovery in consumption.
Guangfa Securities: don't be pessimistic
For the four major driving factors of total demand: exports, real estate, local governments and the central government, the export situation has improved significantly since the beginning of the year, followed by the increase in real estate policy and the issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds by the central government.
Since the beginning of the year, the issuing speed of local government special bonds has become a key factor restricting fundamental expectations. However, since last week, there have been obvious signs of acceleration in the issuance of local government special bonds. Taking into account the total volume of 3.9 trillion issued in the whole year and the slow pace in the first four months, it is expected that the issuance of special bonds may continue in the next few months, helping to support the market's expectations of fundamentals.
Therefore, judging the risk appetite of the market from May to July should not be too bad, and the decline in risk appetite caused by geopolitical shocks may be short-lived.
In terms of industry allocation, on the one hand, the introduction of real estate policy began to restore confidence in the future of Chinese assets. In this context, share prices and turnover are low, and some institutional preferences that imply future growth expectations are gradually getting attention, such as innovative drugs and semiconductor equipment.
On the other hand, the TMT sector, which accounted for about 40 per cent of the trading volume in mid-March and returned to the safe value after two months of digestion, is also worthy of attention, especially some new industrial developments, such as domestic computing power, Huawei Hongmeng, Xinchuang, satellite and so on.
Everbright Securities (rights protection): concussion upstream
Recently, with the frequent occurrence of positive real estate policies, the A-share market is expected to fluctuate upward. Since May, weak fundamentals have led to volatility in the market as a whole, and real estate is one of the drag items of weak economic fundamentals.
The introduction of positive real estate policies will help to promote the high-quality development of the real estate market, boost market confidence and promote market sentiment to pick up, and the A-share market is expected to continue its strong performance.
In the allocation direction, high dividends and pro-cyclical are worthy of long-term attention. Under the current market environment, the high dividend sector is worthy of long-term allocation. The policy is also actively guiding dividends, which will boost the situation in the high dividend sector. However, trading congestion in high-dividend sectors is currently on the high side and can be allocated after share prices or trading congestion falls. In addition, the domestic economy is expected to continue to repair in the future, and the pro-cyclical plate is also worthy of attention.
Hua an Securities: gradually upward
Looking forward to June, the market is expected to rise gradually in the midst of volatility. On the one hand, May macro high-frequency data pointed to a slight improvement in economic momentum compared with the previous month, external demand led production to maintain a high economy, consumption and inflation recovered moderately, and the decline in real estate sales narrowed.
On the other hand, the acceleration of policy landing after the Politburo meeting, the physical workload of infrastructure and the optimization of real estate regulation and control policies promote to improve the problem of insufficient effective demand. In addition, with the approach of important meetings, market expectations for reform in key areas have increased, and risk appetite is expected to increase slowly.
The factor that restricts the upward range and speed of A-shares is that the slope of economic repair is not expected to improve significantly under the known macro policy strength. Therefore, the current market environment is expected to gradually rise in the shock.
In terms of configuration, it is recommended to focus on four main lines: First, some cyclical products with economic support, mainly including nonferrous metals (industrial metals, precious metals), coal, utilities (electricity), building materials (cement), etc. Second, it is the medium-and long-term allocation opportunity for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. Third,"new quality productivity" is constantly catalyzed, equipment updates and low-altitude economic events are catalyzed. The fourth is the national defense industry.