News summary
Raw salt on the cost side is stable, and profits from Shandong chlor-alkali units are rising; caustic soda production on the supply side is declining, and operating rates are expected to decline next week; alumina production capacity on the demand side is limited, and non-aluminum downstream demand is sluggish; and the short-term market is volatile.
Newsletter text
[Shandong chlor-alkali plants are rising, and raw salt prices are stable to support profit increases]
Raw salt prices remain stable, and the PVC industryallspinswincasinoThe strong performance of Shandong's chlor-alkali plant has led to an upward trend in the comprehensive profit of Shandong's chlor-alkali plants. Caustic soda output dropped slightly month-on-month. Seven units are expected to enter the maintenance period next week, and six units will be restarted at the same time, which is expected to lead to a further decline in operating rates. Although Shandong installationallspinswincasinoThe overhaul has had little impact on the main eastern producing areas, but the weak growth of downstream demand has resulted in the inability of 32 alkali companies. Overhaul and relief of inventory pressure in Jiangsu have pushed liquid soda prices to continue to rise.
[Soda stocks are stable, exports fall sharply]
In April, export volumes of both liquid alkali and solid alkali decreased significantly, and it is expected that high-concentration alkali products may turn to the domestic market. At present, the inventory of caustic soda remains stable, and it is unlikely that it will be significantly removed from the warehouse in the short term.
[Alumina production is expected to increase and resume production, but production capacity release is limited]
Although the alumina industry is expected to increase production, due to mining restrictions, production capacity is difficult to be released in the short term. At the same time, it is expected that subsequent alumina imports may also decrease. Demand in the pulp and printing and dyeing industries remains sluggish, and viscose staple fiber units are still under maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in operating rates in non-aluminum downstream industries this week.
[Comprehensive analysis, short-term market forecasts are volatile]
On the whole, the stability of the cost side and the expectation of shrinking the supply side, as well as the temporary difficulty of positive factors in downstream demand, it is expected that market conditions will be dominated by shocks in the short term.